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Saturday, January 16, 2016

A Taylor buy day in the 30 yr Bond Futures

There has been a lot of volatility this past week, so I thought that I would show an example of a classic Taylor buy day in the 30 year bond futures. A TTT buy day follows a shorting day, taking out the low of the short day, then reversing into a trending up day.

It is important to pay attention to the short term trend, and try and trade in its direction. In this case the slow line of the 3-10 oscillator is above zero, and is of positive slope- both indicating a short term uptrend. Price is also above the 20 day ema, the only moving average that I use. Note the daily chart below-




Please also note below, the 15 minute chart of those two days. Several things are going on here-

1. The Jan 11 low of 155-11 is taken out around 3:45 am.

2. Although price reverses above that level at 6:00 am, that was too early for me. We got a second chance at 7:30. This bar was also a short term trendline break.

3. There is a 15 min divergence- price is sloping down, but the fast line of the 3-10 makes a higher low.

Price continued to move up all day, hitting the Dec 11 high of 157-17, a nice point to have a profit taking stop in place. Price moved up a little more after that, but if you cannot watch the market all day, you have to consider profit targets.